Lane, Unfiltered
This is a collection of my posts from around the internet. Subjects are all over the map...
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Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012 ↓But the News Said…
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One of the comments I hear the most is “but the news said…”. There are always stories on the news about the NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) market stats, Case-Shiller or others. Most of the statistics are based on national numbers. Case Shiller is a little more local, in that it is based on the local area… if you can call the Atlanta region “local”.
One thing I would note is that the Atlanta region DOES tend to track pretty close to national averages. But being pretty close isn’t the same as being the same. And even if it were, there is a huge difference between the Atlanta Metro area and Gwinnett County… much less Suwanee, or the Morningview subdivision.
And that is the problem…
We can’t listen to the news and have a clear picture of what it means for our house or our neighborhood. It would be the same as looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and deciding whether a specific stock was going to go up or down.
But that is exactly what people do… They see a report on the network news and then decide that houses are over-priced, under-priced or whatever. When the real fact is that some market segments are rocking bargains right now… there is too much inventory and not enough buyers. Other segments have scarce inventory and homes are selling as fast as they are listed (if they are priced appropriately). But the national news… or even the local news… can’t be that exact in their reporting.
Unlike a lot of real estate professionals, I don’t begrudge the news for reporting the “big picture” story on the real estate market. We DO need to know what is happening on a national basis. But we also need to remember that there are vast differences between neighborhoods, price ranges, ZIP codes, school areas, etc.
The best bet is to talk with a local agent… I have monthly market reports on 7 cities in Gwinnett County, GA. If this is your area, you can get a much better idea of what is going on around you. If you really want to know what is happening, let me know and we’ll talk about YOUR house.
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Tags: tumblrize atlanta buford business of real estate buyers client protection deals duluth gwinnett investment lawrenceville lilburn market report news norcross real estate sellers sugar hill suwanee
The “Best” Deal?
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It might be one of the most asked questions I get from both Buyers and Sellers…
Is this the “best” deal?
The problem is that there is almost never an answer. It isn’t as simple as a mathematical equation… unless there are variables to include for things like emotion, comfort and other intangibles. The other problem is that just trying to figure out if THIS is the best deal can change the answer to the equation.
People have a tendency to “dig in” when they are pressed. Buyers or Sellers hit a limit to what they want to do, and often they hit that limit harder when the other party is trying to test the limits.
We’ve all heard the story of the boiling frog… If you put him in a pot of boiling water, he jumps out, but if you put him in comfortable water and slowly heat it, he will sit there and boil.
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It works the same with buyers and sellers. If a Buyer sends an offer with a very low price (we’ll leave aside value v pricehere…) to start negotiations, the Seller often digs in and won’t accept an offer that they might have accepted had negotiations started from a more acceptable point. Conversely, if a Seller starts with a list price that is too high, the Buyers may just not submit an offer… or they might pick the property apart and submit a lower offer than they might have otherwise.
Of course the thing to remember is that it certainly ISN’T the best deal if it never happens…
Related articles
- Emotional Traps of Selling Your Home (jcorcoran1.wordpress.com)
- Does a seller have to respond to my offer? (findwell.com)
- Traditional ‘Rules’ of Home Buying Return (money.usnews.com)
Tags: tumblrize business of real estate buyers client protection honesty real estate sellers
USA Today thinks prices are heading up…
And they very may.
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According to the article I ran across this morning, house prices should go up about 4% each year for the next year. I can see that… especially on the entry level of the market. On the upper end of the market, though, it isn’t looking like we’ll see recovery for a little while. Between taxes and other policies that aren’t that friendly towards small business, there isn’t a lot of short term optimism with many of the folks that buy more luxurious homes.
So… my take is this. I see the lower end of the market performing well over the next few years. The higher end of the market more tricky. The middle of the market, as well.
On the entry level, investors are scooping up properties. Prices have stabilized and we will likely see increases regardless of the political or business climate, unless there is a MAJOR reversal. Many of the investors are buying and holding properties as rentals, and there are simply a lot of people out there that have good income but cannot buy because of foreclosures and short sales. That will drive the entry level pricing picture.
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At the middle of the market, there are a few competing stories. Many of the move-up buyers are stuck in their current homes or have been through foreclosures and short sales. But, there are some that will look at snapping up a deal when they feel comfortable about their employment prospects. Right now, that simply isn’t the case. We all hear that the Unemployment Rate is dropping, but what we are NOT seeing is the Employment Rate moving up. The drop in “unemployment” is mostly tied to people giving up looking for work. In fact, the Workforce Participation Rate is at a low point. So, if people in the middle start to feel that the economy is stable, they will buy homes.
On the upper reaches of the market, there are a few different stories as well. Foreclosures and Short Sales are a factor, but not as often as on the lower segments. But, comfort is a major factor. Most of these folks are business owners or senior employees. Taxes and regulations are playing a major role in their decisions. Talk from Washington of major tax increases and more difficult regulation are making them hold off… even when they see a bargain. A more business friendly tone in DC could turn the tide for these buyers.
The big question… Where do YOU think the market is going, and why?
Related articles
- Inflation Is Coming (themarlincompany.com)
Tags: tumblrize atlanta business of real estate buyers financial crisis investment market report news real estate sellers
Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??
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Just in the last two days I have heard reported on the national news that prices have stabilized (link to the NAR release here) and that prices were declining in 16 of the 20 top metro areas (Case-Shiller link here).
How can these two stories be squared?
Honestly, I don’t think that they can be… and given experience with past “interpretations” by the NAR, I’m inclined to not believe the NAR numbers. Actually… I believe the numbers, but not the interpretation.
Case-Shiller looks at actual properties in some of their surveys. Rather than looking at averages or medians, they sample properties. By looking at repeat sales of the same address, they can better determine what prices are doing.
Pretty much every other study looks at all of the sales and then breaks it down to average or median prices. The problem then is that if more expensive homes are selling, it looks like values are going up. If less expensive homes are selling, it looks like prices are going down.
Of course, nothing is perfect.
The problem is that there are a LOT of ways that data can be sliced and diced. And EVERYONE that looks at the data has an agenda. Some may be better at ignoring their personal bias, but it is still there.
My take? I don’t think we are quite ready to recover. Yet. I think that the bottom line is that until there is a recovery in jobs (not the unemployment rate, but the employment rate), there will be no recovery in the hosing market. And that shakes out to local areas…
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Tags: tumblrize atlanta business of real estate buyers client protection duluth financial crisis gwinnett investment lawrenceville market report news norcross real estate sellers sugar hill suwanee
With Fanfare Aplenty…
I would like to announce that I have joined Century 21 Results Realty. I enjoyed my time with Diamond Dwellings Realty, but as DDR folded, I found C21RR fit in with my needs and desires moving forward. Prior to DDR, I was with C21 Network Realty in Tucker, GA. C21NWR has always been a class organization, and I would have considered rejoining the C21NWR team, but since my family has relocated to Suwanee from Lilburn, C21RR is closer… they are also a VERY active office, and have led the area in technology and service…
It is only this year that Results Realty joined the Century 21 franchise. In fact, the first time I went to meet with a few of the folks was the same day that they announced that Results Realty was becoming Century 21 Results Realty. I was actually pretty excited about the change. Terry Swanson, the Broker-in-charge, has a reputation as being a pretty good guy to work with and I knew that Century 21 has been working the last few years on upping their already solid game in the support division.
Working in a small independent brokerage was a lot of fun, and I expect that being part of a big affiliated brokerage will also have some great rewards.
There will be plenty more to announce in the coming weeks and months. Stay tuned.
Please be patient as I work to get all of the correct signage up on my sites, both here, FaceBook and GarageHomesUSA.com
Unique Homes?
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Everybody likes unique homes… maybe not the same unique homes, but homes that are unique to their needs and desires. But, when it’s time to move, a unique home can be a REAL challenge to sell. In effect, it takes finding someone else that sees the same value in the property in order complete a sale where everyone leaves the closing table with a smile.
Financing a unique home can ALSO be a challenge. Now, you don’t just need to find a buyer that has similar needs and desires for their home, but the appraiser needs to be able to justify it through the use of comparable properties. Comparable properties might be pretty slim… since the very definition of “unique home” would seem to preclude comparable properties.
What makes a “unique home”?
- Unusual interior features… maybe a 30 seat movie theater, 10 car garage, recording studio or maybe even a smaller house with a commercial grade kitchen.
- Architecturally distinct… this can be something as “mundane” as a house that doesn’t fit the character of nearby homes. A modern, minimalist home in a neighborhood of traditional homes would be unique.
-
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[/caption]Different type of lot… like a 10 acre lot tucked into a neighborhood with ½ acre lots, or a ¾ acre lot in an area loaded with 20 acre mini-farms.
- Homes with historical significance… whether we are talking about a house like “Falling Water” (famous Frank Lloyd Wright design) or the Lalaurie Mansion (a famous home in the French Quarter of New Orleans, purchased a few years ago by Nicholas Cage) or even a home owned by a notable person from history.
- VERY different homes… a house built to look like a shoe, or an earth-shelter home. Lots of very high end homes fall into this, just because of the cost and limited market for them.
Selling a unique home involves a lot of challenges, both for the sellers AND for their real estate agent.
- They may take a substantially longer time to sell than other homes. They need to have the right buyer… and they have a much smaller buyer pool because of their unique attributes.
-
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[/caption]The sellers will often end up selling for much less than they originally hoped… even if they find the “perfect buyer” because of the problems that can arise during the appraisal and financing processes.
- In some cases, especially homes with historical significance, there might be substantial restrictions on the buyers (can you imagine what would happen if someone bought Monticello, Thomas Jefferson’s home in Virginia, and then bull-dozed it because they liked the lot?)
- The marketing costs and effort need to be much higher in order to have a good outcome.
There is a saying in real estate… Price fixes everything… but there are limits to that. In fact, over the last few years we have actually seen properties that couldn’t be GIVEN away. In Detroit, there were homes that were livable (not nice, but not caving in, either) that failed to sell for $100. The value of the underlying land was less than the cost of removing the house… and there was no demand for the house. The parallel in unique homes is that there might not be a noticable local demand for a house with that particular style. To sell a specialized home to a general buyer often means that the unique features are completely discounted, or may even be a liability.
So, “price fixes everything” may actually not apply in the case of some unique homes. Marketing might also not be able to overcome some obstacles. However, to get the best outcome, a combination of aggressive marketing, realistic pricing, and a realistic timetable are the solutions.
I have dealt with several unique properties… garage homes being the most predominant. The require a different type of service than many real estate agents are willing to provide. There is a substantial portion of the real estate community that “plays a numbers game” when it comes to listings. They figure that by listing a lot of properties, they will get a percentage that sell. By lowering their marketing costs and concentrating on funneling more into the listing end of the equation, they will get more sales on the closing end of the equation. They are much less interested in changing the equation to get a higher percentage fo the properties sold… and they have little patience for dealing with interesting and unique properties.
If you have an interesting property that you want to sell… or you are looking for an interesting property… around Atlanta, especially in Gwinnett County and around Lake Lanier, give me a call.
Tags: tumblrize business of real estate client protection garage hobby honesty improvements investment real estate sellers
Foreclosures v. the Rest of the Market
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RISMedia just posted a story a few days ago citing stats that 24% of all real estate sales nationwide are foreclosure. That is down slightly from 26% in the 4th quarter of 2010. And a little more striking piece of news was that short sales were up by 15% from a year ago while REO (foreclosure) sales were actually down 12% from a year ago.
As a real estate agent, I look at the stats a little different than others might. To begin with, I would have thought that the number would have been higher. Of course, there are local variations… and I think that in Gwinnett County, there is a significantly higher percentage of sales that are foreclosure related.
Looking at local listings, in many of my market area segments, more than half of the available listings are foreclosure or related (pre-foreclosure and short-sale or institutionally owned). And a higher percentage of the sales would be foreclosure related… often because the prices are more attractive.
But overall, I think that this bodes well for the overall health of the local real estate market. As foreclosed inventory depletes, more normalcy can be established in the market.
Of course, if you are a buyer, that means that you might want to jump in while the prices are still depressed and the mortgage rates are bouncing on the bottom. Feel free to give me a call to take a look. You can see my local market reports here.
Lane
garagehome [at] gmail [dot] com
678-200-5895
Related articles
- 10 Cities Where Homebuyers Can Get Steals On Short Sales (businessinsider.com)
- Foreclosure sales a sign of what’s to come (cbsnews.com)
- RealtyTrac: US Foreclosure Sales 24% Of All Q4 Residntl Sales (forexlive.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… Price â Value (lanebailey.com)
- Metro Atlanta foreclosure notices drop (ajc.com)
Tags: tumblrize business of real estate buyers financial crisis foreclosure investment news real estate sellers
Wayback Wednesday… The Bigger Price Myth
This is one of those things that I hear about all of the time. I face it all too often. I go on listing appointments and either an agent before me, or one that comes later “buys the listing”. Of course, not literally, but figuratively.
They tell the seller what the seller wants to hear… regardless of reality. They tell the seller that they will sell the house for more money. It is an appeal to the ego… and sometimes even defies logic. But, it gets the listing. Obviously, the seller generally wants to hear that their house is worth more.
It usually happens for one of two reasons… the innocent one and the not so innocent one.
The innocent reason is that the agent just doesn’t know any better. Through inexperience or bad data or poor technique working with the data… or even misreading the market climate… they arrive at a price that isn’t really realistic. And the window for a price is pretty small. At 20% over real value, the house likely won’t be seen in the current market. At 10%, many of the prospective buyers will dismiss the house even if they come look at it (most buyers won’t make a serious offer more than a few percent off of the list price). Even at 5% over reality, many prospective buyers won’t offer… or they will push it to the back of the line.
The “not so innocent” reason is that the agent KNOWS that the sellers will list with them if they give a higher price estimate. It is a LOT more common that most sellers would think. In fact, there is an entire sub-industry in real estate involving strategies and support for these agents. One of the popular strategies is to build in price reductions at predetermined intervals. The sellers should ask a simple question… “If you are confident of the price, why would you build in price reductions?” Of course, the market DOES shift, sometimes unexpectedly.
The idea, as stated in much of the materials supporting this strategy, is that the agent can tell the seller, “OK, we’ll try it at your price, but if nothing happens in 30 days, we’ll cut the price to ____.” There is always the chance that there will be a buyer that will drop out of the sky, with cash (since the asking price might not clear an appraisal) and no desire to have an appraisal of their own done. But… not that likely. And that is where the issue I take with this as a deliberate strategy begins. We know, from tons of studies, that over-priced houses generally end up selling for less, after spending more time on the market.
It goes like this…
- The house starts off as over-priced, so it gets fewer, if any showings.
- After a period of time, the price starts to ratchet down… but it has already missed that magic window (when a house is first listed) when the most buyers look seriously at it.
- Since it has been on the market longer, the buyers that DO run across is wonder WHY it has been on the market so long.
- Vicious cycle…
- Price gets cut more to get showings.
- When the offer comes in, it is lower than it likely would have been to start with.
Here is the post I wrote about this very issue a couple of years ago.
Related articles
- Wayback Wednesday… For First Time Home-buyers… (lanebailey.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications? (lanebailey.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… Absorption Rate, What Is It? (lanebailey.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… To Finish or Not to Finish, That is the Question. (lanebailey.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… The Dirty Little Secret… (lanebailey.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta (lanebailey.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices (lanebailey.com)
Tags: tumblrize business of real estate ethics honesty real estate sellers wayback wednesday
Wayback Wednesday… Over-Pricing and Under-Offering
If there were two issues I’d have to put at the very top of my question pile, there would be the ones…Â In the original post, I started with the Sellers… so we’ll start with the Buyers this time.
Buyers want a great deal. We all understand that, and as a real estate agent, I’m supportive. Even the Sellers get it. But there are two problems. The first one I wrote about in a couple of years ago, here. Buyers, in their zeal to get a great deal, offer too low to start with. The find a property where the price has been cut to the bone, and then they offer WAY lower.
The problem there is that the seller, whether institutional, or a “regular” seller, doesn’t see the low-ball offer as being serious… then they attach the same feeling to the buyer that made the offer… they aren’t serious. And the seller, if they send back a counter offer, reply with a counter offer that shows that… like maybe knocking $100 off the price. Negotiations stall. That doesn’t help them get the house… and it wastes everyone’s time, including their own.
A few years ago, when I originally wrote the post, there was blood in the water, so to speak, and it was still an issue. Now, especially at the entry-level end of the market, that is NOT the case. It is actually a Seller’s Market for homes that are priced well. I am seeing an increasing number of listings selling for VERY close to list price within days.
Sellers want to get the most from their house. It doesn’t matter if they are a corporate seller or someone moving to take advantage of a job opportunity… or even a seller doing a short sale. Of course, just as the sellers aren’t terribly concerned with the needs of the buyers, buyers don’t really care about the needs of the seller to get top-dollar for their property. And buyers aren’t looking at many over-priced properties.Â
They know which properties are over-priced, too. More and more, I’m seeing buyers that are VERY sophisticated in terms of knowing the value of a particular property, usually before choosing to look at it the first time. If it isn’t priced within a few percent of where it should be, they probably won’t even look at it. Not 10%… not even 5%. More like 2-3%, closer on higher priced homes.
The end result, is that the home sits on the market for a while with few, or even no viewings, much less offers. After a while, the sellers reduce the price, but by then the home is stigmatized. The price drops more. In the end, the home sells for less that it might have sold had the original price been more competitive.Â
What about short sales?
They are the new wrinkle. And I didn’t really address them the first time around. But some similar rules apply…
Sellers, price realistically for the market. Don’t worry about what the bank will accept, worry about a price that will get an honest contract. Realistically… Not too high OR too low. Anything else is a waste of everyone’s time.
Buyer, offer realistically. A rule of thumb I use on short sale offers is that if the offer isn’t going to be within a couple of points of the list price, don’t bother. If the list price is insanely high or low, don’t bother. If you can’t afford to sit on the offer, waiting as much as six months for the bank to get their act together, don’t bother.
I know that is harsh, but it is reality. I actually have a partner that is VERY successful at getting short sales sold. It isn’t easy or fun for anyone… But, it might beat the heck out of some of the alternatives for the seller, and offers great opportunity for the buyer.
Tags: tumblrize business of real estate buyers client protection deals honesty news real estate sellers short sales wayback wednesday
Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?
Last year I wrote one of those “wonderful” annual prognostication posts with my guesses on what we would be looking at during the same time next year… and that would be now.
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Here is a link to the old post. I’ll have the quick version below, but if you want to see the context, knock yourself out…
- I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave of Shadow Inventory. Well, I have to say that I hit that one. Inventories are dropping, but the general buzz in the biz is that there is a huge wave of “Shadow Inventory” just around the bend. Of course, it has been there (just around the corner) for a few years now…
- Interest Rates ARE going to rise. They did… a little… but they are down. I was wrong.
- … there will be another wave of government intervention…Â I hoped I would be wrong on this one, and I was.
- The entry level market (under $200k) is well on the way to recovery⦠and that will continue. I hit that one right. The entry level market is pretty much rocking in Gwinnett County.
- And I donât think we will see a meaningful recovery in prices for the Luxury Market (above $600k). Talk about a hurting market segment… Unfortunately, I hit that one on the head.
- The âNear Luxuryâ segment (from $200k-$600k) will be mixed. That one is pretty close. There are some markets that we are seeing a meaningful recovery for this price level… and other, not so much. A few are just waffling.
- I donât see Unemployment going under 9% during 2011. How do I rate this one? Officially, I am wrong. However, most of the improvement hasn’t been from job creation, but rather from people giving up. The December numbers are supposed to be released later today…
I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.
Related articles
- Wayback Wednesday… How ‘bout Those Housing Starts (lanebailey.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices (lanebailey.com)
- Wayback Wednesday… From the Meltdown. (lanebailey.com)
