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Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012 ↓

But the News Said…

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”English: Change of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index relative to its peak values in 1989 and 2006. Series starting in 1989 is in blue. Series starting in 2006 is in red. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)”]English: Change of the Case-Shiller Home Price...[/caption]

One of the comments I hear the most is “but the news said…”.  There are always stories on the news about the NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) market stats, Case-Shiller or others.  Most of the statistics are based on national numbers.  Case Shiller is a little more local, in that it is based on the local area… if you can call the Atlanta region “local”.

One thing I would note is that the Atlanta region DOES tend to track pretty close to national averages.  But being pretty close isn’t the same as being the same.  And even if it were, there is a huge difference between the Atlanta Metro area and Gwinnett County… much less Suwanee, or the Morningview subdivision.

And that is the problem…

We can’t listen to the news and have a clear picture of what it means for our house or our neighborhood.  It would be the same as looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and deciding whether a specific stock was going to go up or down.

But that is exactly what people do… They see a report on the network news and then decide that houses are over-priced, under-priced or whatever.  When the real fact is that some market segments are rocking bargains right now… there is too much inventory and not enough buyers.  Other segments have scarce inventory and homes are selling as fast as they are listed (if they are priced appropriately).  But the national news… or even the local news… can’t be that exact in their reporting.

Unlike a lot of real estate professionals, I don’t begrudge the news for reporting the “big picture” story on the real estate market.  We DO need to know what is happening on a national basis.  But we also need to remember that there are vast differences between neighborhoods, price ranges, ZIP codes, school areas, etc.

The best bet is to talk with a local agent… I have monthly market reports on 7 cities in Gwinnett County, GA.  If this is your area, you can get a much better idea of what is going on around you.  If you really want to know what is happening, let me know and we’ll talk about YOUR house.

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Friday, May 18th, 2012 ↓

Lilburn, GA Market Report, April 2012

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...
This map shows the incorporated and unincorporated areas in Gwinnett County, Georgia, highlighting Lilburn in red. It was created with a custom script with US Census Bureau data and modified with Inkscape. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, April, 2012, indicate that there were 327properties on the market (as of April 30th). Overall, there was about an 6.2 month supply of properties and 65 properties that closed (sold) in April. It was a huge increase from last year’s sales (44) and an increase from March (51 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down a good bit. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 6.17 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a year ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 229 listings, with about an 5.4 month supply with 51 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales increased solidly from last month (41), and were also up from last year (32). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn. The track is getting a little better.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 85 listings for sale, and about 8.5 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance. It is stalling a bit again. There were 14 sales compared to 11 last year. This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. But the decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It was strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 9 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 27 months (one year average). There was 1 sales in March. It was the first sale in the segment since last July. Poised for a comeback, but the increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

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I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Monday, May 14th, 2012 ↓

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, April 2012

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”Image via Wikipedia”]This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...[/caption]

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, April, 2012 indicate that there were 426 properties on the market (up from 420 last month). Overall, there was about a 5.4 month supply of properties (down from 6.2 last month). April had 75 sales. Compared to April, 2011 (75), this year was flat. Inventory was down compared to 2011 (624). There were 100 sales last month.  Although sales were flat, the decreasing inventory has made this year look a lot better.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 117 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.5 month supply (178 and 6.9, respectively last year). This April’s sales were WAY down, at 28 (37 last year, 42 last month). This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee. And one of the strongest in the whole county. The next level up is coming up fast.  There are a few other segments in the county getting close, though.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 200 listings for sale (295 last year, 195 last month), and 5.8 months of supply. Sales in April, 2012 were 35 (42 in March), compared with 28 for the same period in 2011. Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months. I’d like to see some consistency around 40-50 sales for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.

From $400k to $600k, there were 57 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 7.1 months (9.3 in March). There were 10 sales in April (10 in March)… up from 3 last April. Looking at the three month average, there were 24 sales this year and 12 for the same period last year. This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but stayed sort of weak this month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 22 listings, with about a 11 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 0 this month (3 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 6… For the same time last year, the sales were 3. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. But until I see 3-5 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 4 homes listed and 12 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) . This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 26 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about19.5 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (2 for March and 2 for April). In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 22 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Friday, May 11th, 2012 ↓

Lane on AREF Radio

Last week I was a guest on Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio.  We actually recorded the podcast a few weeks ago… it was a lot of fun.  In my segment we talked about what guys really want in a garage.  Take a listen… let me know what you think.  I’d love to get your feedback.

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”House and garage Between Sarclet and Thrumster. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)”]House and garage Between Sarclet and Thrumster.[/caption]

You can check out the original post on AREF’s website here.

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Wednesday, May 9th, 2012 ↓

USA Today thinks prices are heading up…

And they very may.

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”map for us unemployment numbers (Photo credit: Wikipedia)”]map for us unemployment numbers[/caption]

According to the article I ran across this morning, house prices should go up about 4% each year for the next year.  I can see that… especially on the entry level of the market.  On the upper end of the market, though, it isn’t looking like we’ll see recovery for a little while. Between taxes and other policies that aren’t that friendly towards small business, there isn’t a lot of short term optimism with many of the folks that buy more luxurious homes.

So… my take is this.  I see the lower end of the market performing well over the next few years.  The higher end of the market more tricky.  The middle of the market, as well.

On the entry level, investors are scooping up properties.  Prices have stabilized and we will likely see increases regardless of the political or business climate, unless there is a MAJOR reversal.  Many of the investors are buying and holding properties as rentals, and there are simply a lot of people out there that have good income but cannot buy because of foreclosures and short sales.  That will drive the entry level pricing picture.

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”selfmade image of U.S. Unemployment rate from 1890-2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)”]selfmade image of U.S. Unemployment rate from ...[/caption]

At the middle of the market, there are a few competing stories.  Many of the move-up buyers are stuck in their current homes or have been through foreclosures and short sales.  But, there are some that will look at snapping up a deal when they feel comfortable about their employment prospects.  Right now, that simply isn’t the case.  We all hear that the Unemployment Rate is dropping, but what we are NOT seeing is the Employment Rate moving up.  The drop in “unemployment” is mostly tied to people giving up looking for work.  In fact, the Workforce Participation Rate is at a low point.  So, if people in the middle start to feel that the economy is stable, they will buy homes.

On the upper reaches of the market, there are a few different stories as well.  Foreclosures and Short Sales are a factor, but not as often as on the lower segments.  But, comfort is a major factor.  Most of these folks are business owners or senior employees.  Taxes and regulations are playing a major role in their decisions.  Talk from Washington of major tax increases and more difficult regulation are making them hold off… even when they see a bargain.  A more business friendly tone in DC could turn the tide for these buyers.

The big question… Where do YOU think the market is going, and why?

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Wednesday, Apr 25th, 2012 ↓

Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”240” caption=”Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Photo credit: planspark)”]Case-Shiller Home Price Index[/caption]

Just in the last two days I have heard reported on the national news that prices have stabilized (link to the NAR release here) and that prices were declining in 16 of the 20 top metro areas (Case-Shiller link here).

How can these two stories be squared?

Honestly, I don’t think that they can be…  and given experience with past “interpretations” by the NAR, I’m inclined to not believe the NAR numbers.  Actually… I believe the numbers, but not the interpretation.

Case-Shiller looks at actual properties in some of their surveys.  Rather than looking at averages or medians, they sample properties.  By looking at repeat sales of the same address, they can better determine what prices are doing.

Pretty much every other study looks at all of the sales and then breaks it down to average or median prices.  The problem then is that if more expensive homes are selling, it looks like values are going up.  If less expensive homes are selling, it looks like prices are going down.

Of course, nothing is perfect.

The problem is that there are a LOT of ways that data can be sliced and diced.  And EVERYONE that looks at the data has an agenda.  Some may be better at ignoring their personal bias, but it is still there.

My take?  I don’t think we are quite ready to recover.  Yet.  I think that the bottom line is that until there is a recovery in jobs (not the unemployment rate, but the employment rate), there will be no recovery in the hosing market.  And that shakes out to local areas…

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Wednesday, Apr 18th, 2012 ↓

Are We At The Bottom Yet?

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”Historic downtown Marietta’s town square (Photo credit: Wikipedia)”]Historic downtown Marietta's town square[/caption]

It seems that every time someone figures out I am in real estate, the next question is…

Are we at the market bottom yet?

The answer is… that I don’t know.  And anyone that tells you that they DO know is either lying or from the future.  I’m not banking that they are from the future.

Prices in the Atlanta area are WAY down from the highs of 2006-2008.  In some areas, it is more than 50% down from those highs.  In other areas, we are “only” down 30%.  Day after day, I talk with people that are underwater, or just plain mad that their values have eroded to the extent they have.

Right now, there are a couple of things in favor of calling a “market bottom”… beginning with inventories.  We are at historical lows in inventories.  And at a time when we usually see them increasing (Spring), they are still dropping.  Meanwhile, year over year sales are growing strongly.  Those are both good things for the recovery of the market (unless you are a buyer looking to “wait for it to go lower”).  Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing.  That generally should lead to a strengthening of prices.

But all is not “milk and honey” in the real estate realm.  A large percentage of sales in the Atlanta area, and in Gwinnett County, is tied to distressed property… foreclosures and short sales.  Not just that, but those sales are largely at the bottom of the market… entry level houses.  Under the $200k level, the Absorption Rates are generally well under 6 months.  Some are barely above 3 months of inventory.  At the same time, move-up homes are not doing as well.  Passing $300k, A/Rs are mostly over 12 months.  In effect, there is twice as much inventory are there should be for the level of sales.

The latest reports say that the foreclosure pipeline is about to get filled again, too.  With the settlement of the lawsuit between major lenders and most states, banks are free to continue foreclosing on distressed properties.  While there are a lot of people that aren’t happy about that, it is a needed step for recovery.  BUT, we have been hearing about the “next wave of foreclosures” for more than three years.  It has always been just a few months away.  It is still just a few months away.

Here is the bottom line, in my opinion…

If the next wave of foreclosures breaks on the shore, then there will be a round of price erosion.  There will be an increase in supply, and demand likely won’t be able to keep pace… prices will drop.

If the wave fizzles before hitting the beach, we have already seen the bottom in the entry level market, and that bottom will soon pass at higher price levels.

If the jobs picture brightens, the foreclosure wave won’t matter as much.  Demand will pick up much, if not all of the excess supply.

If the jobs picture dims, the market will continue to slide.  The fizzling of the foreclosure wave will keep us where we are, at best.

As a side note, the unemployment rate is NOT a measure of the jobs picture.  We need to look deeper… like at the employment rate.  We actually still have a decrease in the percentage of employed Americans, despite the unemployment rate dropping.  The unemployment rate does not take into account discouraged workers that have left the job market.

So, how do you feel about the people telling you that they know where the market is going?

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Friday, Apr 6th, 2012 ↓

Gwinnett Market Impressions…

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrenceville GA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)”]Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...[/caption]

I won’t have the March sales figures for Gwinnett County for a few more days, but I do have a few thoughts on what I have seen from the Listing numbers I pulled down on the 1st of April.

Listings are down.  And that is weird.  VERY weird.  Not just down year over year… that isn’t weird at all.  But they are actually down from month to month.  And in this market, that doesn’t happen (although I can’t really say that now… because it just happened).  Looking back over the last few years, listings tended to bottom out in January… March would be up over February, April over March.  We’ve been going down for the last two months instead.

Of course, I still hear the media and a LOT of other real estate agents telling me about the “coming wave of foreclosures” just waiting for the banks to decide that they should release them.  If they had the “shadow inventory” everyone is talking about, they would be releasing it.  For this market, there wouldn’t be a better time.  Listings are down and this is when sales are generally moving up.

Looking back at the last year only confirms this.  We’ve seen Absorption Rates under 6 months in most of the segments with the dropping inventories.  (Translation: This isn’t a shocker…).

What does all of this mean?

Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County
Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think we are seeing a bottom for some segments… specifically homes priced under $200,000 to $400,000 (I don’t know exactly where the line is… but homes under $200k are solid right now… homes over $400k are looking pretty shaky still).  Could prices erode further? Absolutely.  But I think that without a change for the worse in the economy, we are probably at the bottom of those properties here in Gwinnett County.  The higher price ranges might be bottoming or might not… but I have a lot less certainty over $400k.

There is actual competition for properties at the entry level.  Multiple offers and homes selling over list price.  The homes that are priced “right” are getting snapped up.  Over-priced houses are still languishing on the market, though.  But a couple of years ago, there was hardly a “priced right”.

Now we just need to get the higher priced segments moving again…

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Friday, Mar 2nd, 2012 ↓

Norcross, GA, Market Report, January 2012

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”Image via Wikipedia”]This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...[/caption]

Market stats for Norcross GA, January, 2012 indicate that there were 241 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.7 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April was below last year)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  January saw 40 sales, ever so slightly below the 41 for January, 2011, and well under the 52 for December.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 140 listings, with about 3.4 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month but only slightly up from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (33 v 32 in Jan11 & 46 Dec11).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At barely over 3 month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 67 listings for sale, and about 14.4 months of supply.  This segment has been weakening for the last four months.  The 6 sales were slightly up compared to last year’s 5 sales, but solidly up from last month’s 4 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  Coming off of a reasonably strong summer selling season is why this segment looks like it is weakening.

From $400k to $600k, there were 26 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 15.6 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  January’s 1 sale was down from 2 the month before and from last year’s 3 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November (0 in December or January), obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 4 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure.  The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Monday, Feb 27th, 2012 ↓

Duluth, GA, Market Report, January 2012

[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”Image via Wikipedia”]This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...[/caption]

Preliminary stats for Duluth, January, 2012 indicated that there were 449 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 9.8 month supply of properties.  Sales in January were 30, slightly down from 40 a year earlier.  But, sales were way down compared to the prior month (57).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 180 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a7.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55.  Sales in January were down this year v last year (13 v 23), and way down compared to last month (35).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county… but it has decelerated again this month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 131 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving mostly the wrong way (up) since August.  Sales were up compared to January, 2011 (10 v 7) but down compared to last month (14).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 46 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 8.1 months.  January brought in 4 sales. There were 6 last year and 5 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month… and one of a very few to have posted a better A/R than in the previous month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 33 listings, with about 9.9 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for January… 4 for January last year.  Month to month sales were actually up (3 v 2).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 69 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sales recorded for January was flat with last year’s 0 and from the 0 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sale for the last3 months has killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.

Above $1m, there were 36 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 54 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 2 sales in the Nov-Jan period this year, and 3 for the same time last year. Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 0 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

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I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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