Lane, Unfiltered

Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?

Last year I wrote one of those “wonderful” annual prognostication posts with my guesses on what we would be looking at during the same time next year… and that would be now.

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Here is a link to the old post.  I’ll have the quick version below, but if you want to see the context, knock yourself out…

• I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave of Shadow Inventory.  Well, I have to say that I hit that one.  Inventories are dropping, but the general buzz in the biz is that there is a huge wave of “Shadow Inventory” just around the bend.  Of course, it has been there (just around the corner) for a few years now…
• Interest Rates ARE going to rise.  They did… a little… but they are down.  I was wrong.
• … there will be another wave of government intervention…  I hoped I would be wrong on this one, and I was.
• The entry level market (under $200k) is well on the way to recovery… and that will continue.  I hit that one right.  The entry level market is pretty much rocking in Gwinnett County.
• And I don’t think we will see a meaningful recovery in prices for the Luxury Market (above $600k).  Talk about a hurting market segment…  Unfortunately, I hit that one on the head.
• The “Near Luxury” segment (from $200k-$600k) will be mixed.  That one is pretty close.  There are some markets that we are seeing a meaningful recovery for this price level… and other, not so much.  A few are just waffling.
• I don’t see Unemployment going under 9% during 2011.  How do I rate this one?  Officially, I am wrong.  However, most of the improvement hasn’t been from job creation, but rather from people giving up.  The December numbers are supposed to be released later today…

I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.

Related articles

• Wayback Wednesday… How ‘bout Those Housing Starts (lanebailey.com)
• Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices (lanebailey.com)
• Wayback Wednesday… From the Meltdown. (lanebailey.com)

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